Lee Lowenfish

Nobody can predict how a schedule made up in the summer of 2023 can create high drama in Sept 2024.  It turns out that the final two weeks of the baseball regular season will feature tremendous matchups that will affect not only next month's playoffs but could even lead to curtains for the losing teams.  

 

I'm sad to report that there is fear and trembling among the Oriole faithful that thought playoff participation was a lock and even advancement deep into October was a possibility. I must say that I never drank the Kool-Aid that we had the "best farm system in baseball."  I just hope that the failures of highly touted Jackson Holliday - ballyhooed as the "best prospect in baseball" whatever that meant - and almost-as-highly-touted Coby Mayo will not lead to permanent damage to their careers.

 

I'm not forgetting that injuries have crippled the Oriole offense: the HBP that broke the throwing hand of feisty 2b-3bman Jordan Westburg (he could be back next week); speedy savvy fellow infielder Jorge Mateo, gone for the season with an elbow injury caused by a freak collision with shortstop Gunnar Henderson (the only regular producing with the bat despite erratic shortstop play); and more recently the sprained ankle of versatile infielder Ramon Urias and sprained wrist of first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. 

 

Yet other teams have bounced back from even bigger injuries as we'll see below. Mediocre trades by top baseball ops man Mike Elias have not fortified the bench and the Birds' "deep depth" - that wonderful Earl Weaver/Yogi Berra phrase - has vanished. It's painful to watch the inexperienced Holliday and Mayo used as pinch-hitters late in games.  

 

There will thus be less drama for the much-anticipated Oriole visit to Yankee Stadium on Sep 24-26. Before games of tonight Sep 16 the Yanks held a 3-game lead on Baltimore and will play in Seattle with the Mariners only three lost games out of the third wild card currently held by Minnesota.

 

The Twins are in the most precarious wild card situation and face the Guardians in Cleveland for 4 big games starting tonight Sep 16 through Th Sep 19.  They then spend the weekend at the out-of-contention Red Sox and then return home for the final week, a series with the NL expansion Marlins and then one with the Orioles.  At least Minnesota and Baltimore have a deep history in the American League.  It could be a meeting of two teams desperately hanging on to a playoff dream.  

 

After their West Coast trip to Seattle, hanging on to the hope of catching Minnesota for the third wild card, and a final visit to Oakland, the Yankees wind up the season at home with the Orioles and then the Pirates.  This last series with Pittsburgh is one of the preposterous inter-league matchups that have marred the September schedule for too long. When the Orioles return home for their final week of regular season series, they will first face the SF Giants from Tu through Th Sep 17-19.  It says here that this crucial time of season is not the time for a matchup of teams unfamiliar with each other. 

 

The fast-charging Tigers come to Baltimore this weekend Sep 20-22.  Detroit just took two out of three from the Orioles at home and have the best record in MLB since early August. I wasn't thrilled that in the first two games of the series, the Tigers used an opener in the first inning, the same pitcher too, the immortal Beau Brieske. It's not against the rules to use an opener, of course, but it reveals to me the abject failure of most major league organizations to develop pitchers that can throw six innings or more. 

 

Commissioner Rob Manfred wants to decree a six-inning minimum for starters but you can't meaningfully change pitching routines by fiat - it requires a change in philosophy that downplays raw velocity and humongous spin rate and stresses pitchability, i.e. the ability to change speeds and pitch to contact and rely on your defense.  There will have to be significant internal pressures to force these changes. Speaking truth to power is never easy, but there will be more thoughts on this important subject in off-season posts. 

 

Before their visit to Charm City, the Tigers have a huge 3-game series at Kansas City starting tonight M Sep 16. To give you a sense of how the Tigers are coalescing at the right time, in yesterday's (Sun Sept 15) 4-2 win over Baltimore, outfielder Riley Greene hit his first two home runs off a lefthander all season if not in his career.

 

The Royals are one of 2024's best feel-good stories, a team eagerly awaiting their first playoff experience since winning the World Series in 2015. They are only two games behind my Birds for the first wild card and a home field advantage in playoffs. 

 

The Royals have an MVP candidate in shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (although it would be hard to vote against Aaron Judge of the Yankees). KC also features a revived veteran catcher-occasional first baseman-leader in Salvador Perez.  The former Met Seth Lugo has had an excellent year on the mound. I find it hard not to root for someone who almost uses a full windup! 

 

After the Royals finish with the Tigers, they might catch a break with two inter-league series: the Giants at home this weekend and then the Nats in Washington.  But they end up with three at Atlanta, another inter-league series that sticks out like a sore thumb and yet could provide high drama. 

 

The Braves and Mets are currently tied for the third wild card in the National League.  Despite the early season loss of pitcher Spencer Strider and MVP outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr and more recently offensive producers, third baseman Austin Riley and second baseman Ozzie Albies, Atlanta has hung in there as a contender.  Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has stepped up on the mound, and after many injuries center fielder Michael Harris II is back and has again shown his abilities as a game-changer.

 

Three cheers to Braves utilityman Whit Merrifield who has somehow bounced back from a serious finger injury from a HBP plus a batted foul ball off his leg to provide spark.  He also has had the courage to call for an investigation of the rushing of rookie pitchers from the minor leagues who may throw 100 mph but don't know where the ball is going.  Merrifield is on a joint player-management committee that discusses such issues. He has vowed to do something about the situation in off-season meetings.

 

Atlanta has one more game tonight - M Sep 16 - against the Dodgers at home and then play this coming week at Cincinnati, long out of the race but with enough offense and occasioinal good pitching to make trouble. For the weekend they go to Minnesota in another preposterous inter-league matchup but with great import for both teams.

The Twins are the third wild card as of this writing but they are wildly inconsistent in large part because three offensive stars, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Bryan Buxton, are regularly injured, especially the later two. 

 

The Braves return home for the final week to face the arch-rival Mets with whom they're tied before games of Sep 16.  And then they wind up with the Royals.

They are playoff experienced and their big three on the mound, Chris Sale, Max Fried, and Spencer Schwellenbach, would be a tough matchup in the playoffs.  But of course they have to get there first.  

 

The one NL wild card contender that has impressively improved its record recently is San Diego, 85-65 as of this writing.  They host AL Central leader Houston, a scary team in any playoff because of their vast post-season experience, and then the White Sox come in this weekend.  San Diego spends the last week on the road at the Dodgers and then the Diamondbacks, the second wild card leader as of now.  Lots of drama likely ahead for the Padres.  

 

One of the more perceptive points I've read recently on Oriole blogs is given the troubles of Holliday and Mayo, what a player young Manny Machado must have been to come up in August 2012 at the age of 19 under the guidance of manager Buck Showalter, playing a new position third base, and give Baltimore a boost into the playoffs after 15 years of non-participation.  Now at age 32 Machado is spearheading a revived Padres under former Cardinals manager Mike Schildt. In some ways, what Jazz Chisholm has done for the Yankees playing a new position, also third base, is comparable. 

 

I'm happy too for the resurgence of Jurickson Profar from Curacao, once a Baseball America cover boy as that Best Prospect in Baseball, who has found success as a solid run-producing left fielder after a long journey of mediocrity.  The Padres also feature young center fielder Jackson Merrill who to me should be a lock as Rookie of the Year of the National League. 

 

I don't really believe in jinxes, but I hope Mets fans forgive me if I went a bit overboard in singing their praises in my last post. This past weekend, they lost two close games in Philadelphia. The Phillies now have a two game lead over the Dodgers for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Mets play the improved pesky Nats and Phillies this week at home and then wind up with the big series at Atlanta and then at Milwaukee. 

 

The Brewers long ago clinched the NL Central and unless there is a good chance that they could have the best record in NL, they might just be playing the last series to stay in shape and set up their pitching rotation for the playoffs.  The Mets have to hope that the back discomfort of MVP candidate Francisco Lindor is minor and he can contribute mightily down the stretch. 

 

The loss of Jeff McNeil to another HBP is not helping their depth even if he is having an off-season. As I said last post, closer Edwin Diaz has to regain consistency. Of course, except for Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians, there has been no great closer in 2024 which is a major reason why there is no clear favorite in the playoffs. 

 

I've rarely tried my hand on prognostications. An exception: During my next-to-last year in graduate school at U of Wisconsin-Madison, I did predict in the mid-summer of 1967 that the Red Sox would overtake the Twins for the AL pennant.  I was right on with that one because I thought Boston playing Minnesota at home would have the pitching and the Fenway advantage to contain the power-happy Twins.

 

I haven't made any predictions since then. It was 20 teams in 1967 and two bulky 10-team leagues and then one World Series.  Now there are 30 teams and six divisions and 12 teams eligible for four rounds of playoffs. If the owners had their way in the last Basic Agreement, they would have pushed for 14 and of course higher-priced playoff tickets for every participant.

 

If this system remains in place indefinitely, some time in the lives of the younger readers of this blog, the regular season will have to be shortened.  For now, I don't want to begrudge the hopeful feelings for fans of those teams still in the wild card hunt.  Yet I cannot help thinking of how Russ Hodges, if he had lived into the Wild Card era, would have called the famous Bobby Thomson home run on Oct 3, 1951: 

"THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT, THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT, THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT, THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT, . . . AND THE DODGERS

WIN THE WILD CARD!!" 

 

AND NOW FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT . . . 

Don't have any major sports-related movies on TCM to share but here are some films of interest, some of which have a sports moment:

Tu Sep 17 945A - the Marx Brothers in "A Night At The Opera" (1935) with a crucial version of "Take Me Out To Ball Game" near the end

 

W Sep 18  715A Frank Sinatra debuts the song "Time After Time" in "It Happened In Brooklyn" (1947)

9a "The Story of Seabiscuit" (1949) fictionalized version of the underdog horse's story with Shirley Temple and Barry Fitzgerald

     and three classics back-to-back:

6p "White Heat" (1949) with Cagney in perhaps his last great role 

8p "The Postman Always Rings Twice" (1946) John Garfield & Lana Turner can't resist passion for each other in story by James M. Cain

10p "Born To Kill" (1947) brutal but absorbing drama with Lawrence Tierney and Claire Trevor (a year before she is forced to sing in "Key Largo"

   and then plays a sanitized Mrs. Babe Ruth in "Babe Ruth Story")

 

Th Sep 19 10P "Modern Times" (1936) - Chaplin's last silent movie with his then-amour Paulette Goddard

 

F Sep 20 9A "Strangers On A Train" (1951) Farley Granger as a besieged tennis player in a Hitchcock classic; nice scenes at Forest Hills tennis club

 

and talk about a couple of timely films:

2p "Berlin Express" (1948) A search for post-WW II Nazi operatives, with Robert Ryan/Merle Oberon/director Jacques Tourneur 

330p "The Tall Target" (1951) foiling of an attempted train assassination of Abe Lincoln with Dick Powell/Adolph Menjou/Paula Raymond/dir. Anthony Mann

 

8p "Dr Strangelove or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love The Bomb" (1964)  Peter Sellers in 3 roles/also George C. Scott/Sterling Hayden/Keenan Wynn

945p "Mr. Smith Goes To Washington" (1940) Jimmy Stewart gets disillusioned in DC and tries to fight back - not my favorite Capra film

  but always worth seeing 

 

ERRATUM from last post:  It was Jessica Pegula who was runner-up at US Tennis Open earlier this month, not Jennifer.

 

That's all for now - always remember: Stay positive, test negative, and Take it easy but take it.  

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Orioles' thrilling season continues on its merry way.  After being embarrassed 13-1 in the opening Fri June 23 game of a three-game home series against a Seattle Mariners team hovering around .500, they came from behind to win the next two games, 6-4 in 10 innings and 3-2 in Sunday's rubber match. 

 

If the 6-4 game Sat. game had been played during the post-season, a wider audience would have called it a classic.  Even though the Birds managed the dubious distinction of "running for the cycle" - 4 men were thrown out on the bases. 

 

Red-hot Anthony Santander hit a tying homer (did the same thing on Sunday and made a sensational catch) and Aaron Hicks, finding new life after trying times with the Yankees, hit a go-ahead homer.  But Yankee castoff Mike Ford, the undrafted slugger from Princeton, hit two long home runs, the second one tying the game with two out in top of the ninth off the huge Oriole closer Felix "The Mountain" Bautista. 

 

Julio Rodriguez, last year's AL Rookie of the Year, also homered and kept the game close by a sensational robbing of a two-run homer off the bat of Ryan O'Hearn.  O'Hearn is a KC Royals castoff who has stepped in productively for the injured and struggling Ryan Mountcastle who might be in danger of being Wally Pipp-ed although the farm system has younger, possibly more talented players than O'Hearn waiting in the wings.

 

The game was won in bottom of the tenth by a two-run homer by defensive replacement Ryan McKenna. It has been that kind of year for the Orioles - major contributions from unlikely members of the roster.  

 

Sunday's game-winning hit came off the bat of third-string catcher Anthony Bemboom who blooped the ball over second baseman Jose Caballero who kicked it towards the tarp and fleet shortstop Jorge Mateo scored all the way from first base on the error. 

 

Baltimore enters the last week of June 4 1/2 games behind Tampa Ray but only two in the loss column. They immediately host another even more surprising team the Cincinnati Reds who rolled off 12 wins in a row before losing two close games to the NL East leaders Atlanta Braves. 

 

The Reds have caught the nation's attention because they have been downtrodden for so long.  Some impressive rookies led by shortstop-third baseman Elly de la Cruz have fueled the surge and the return of future Hall of Famer Joey Votto will undoubtedly help.  Votto is one of the most thoughtful and team-oriented players in MLB and I hope he stays healthy now (but not too healthy against the Orioles). 

 

Maybe the most encouraging development this weekend was the solid seven-inning starts by young Oriole starters Dean Kremer, the first dual Israeli-American citizen in MLB history (and the last Oriole remnant of the

Manny Machado fire sale of 2018), and Kyle Bradish obtained as a minor leaguer in a trade for the fading

Dylan Bundy (last seen pitching for the Mets' Triple-A farm club in Syracuse).  

 

Nothing like the feeling of hope for one's team and the inevitable anxiety - can't have one without another - as summer moves on. On the local NYC high school baseball scene, congrats to Tottenville of Staten Island and Hunter of Manhattan's East Side for their triumphs at Yankee Stadium on June 12 in the AAA and AA divisions. 

 

More next time on the law suit brought by older MLB scouts against the MLB hierachy that may have committed age discrimination violations by severing many experienced veteran scouts. As I stressed in my new book BASEBALL'S ENDANGERED SPECIES, there is no substitute for the informed opinions of those who have worked in the trenches trying to evaluate and project the success of aspiring young players. 

 

The saddest entry this post focuses on the passing last week of two outstanding pitchers and baseball personages, Roger Craig, 93, who died on June 4, and Dick Hall, 92, who died on June 18. 

 

I will never forget Craig coming up with Don Bessent in the middle of the 1955 season to help the Brooklyn Dodgers win their only World Series. After winning another ring with 1959 LA Dodgers, Craig went on to become an anchor on early Mets staffs. 

 

He managed the San Diego Padres in 1978 and 1979 and later became a great pitching coach for the 1984 world champion Tigers. He managed mainly contending SF Giants teams from 1985-1992, losing the 1989 "earthquake" World Series to the Oakland A's.

 

Craig was a renowned teacher of the split-fingered fastball, the pitch du jour of the 1980s. He looked like a more avuncular and kinder former President Lyndon B. Johnson. His signature phrase will be remembered as "Humm baby!" but he was more importantly a wise dispenser of wisdom learned in his home state of North Carolina.  

 

Dick Hall was a lanky young outfielder-third baseman on Branch Rickey's young Pittsburgh Pirates teams in the 1950s before his conversion to the mound.  He blossomed as a relief pitcher for the Orioles in the 1960s winning two World Series rings in 1966 and 1970. 

 

The only Swarthmore graduate who made the field in MLB history (Larry and Lee MacPhail made the Hall of Fame as executives), Hall became an accomplished accountant and a persuasive advocate for the game.  

 

Hall grew up near NYC in Haworth NJ and I met not long ago one of his neighbors who remembered the sound of Hall's practicing his throwing on a cushioned wall or maybe a barn near my friend's house.  The sound of ball on wall night after night became the percussive musical background of my late friend's youth.    

 

In closing let's also cross fingers that the recent termination of several TCM (Turner Classic Movies) executives doesn't lead to a diminuition of that valuable cable channel's programming of classic films.

 

There have been a lot of layoffs at TCM recently, and chief executive David Zaslav is trying to dampen criticism by saying he believes in the station.  For now, my favorite show on TCM - Eddie Muller's Noir Alley Sat at midnight, rebroadcast at 10A Sun - remains on.  Even if the Noir formula grows tiresome and predictable, Eddie's intros and outros are must-see watching.

 

That's all for now. Next post comes from Chautauqua where I'm teaching a class from July 3, 5-7 on "Can Baseball Survive the 21st Century?"   Always remember:  Take it easy but take it, and stay positive, test negative.